Asteroid Apophis Won’t Hit Earth in 2029—Unless This Freaky Scenario Plays Out

Asteroid Apophis doesn’t presently airs a menace to Earth erstwhile it passes by successful a fewer years, but an astrophysicist has envisioned a script wherever that could change.

The bully quality is that an utterly chaotic bid of events—like cosmic bullets colliding astatine afloat velocity and deflecting 1 astatine an incredibly precise angle—would person to hap for this imaginable catastrophe to happen.

In 2021, NASA released an analysis of Apophis’ trajectory, concluding that the asteroid doesn’t airs a menace to Earth successful the contiguous future. While determination volition beryllium adjacent passes successful 2029 and 2036, and an adjacent person attack successful 2068, NASA’s calculations recovered nary hazard of nonstop impact. In fact, NASA officials said our satellite should beryllium harmless from Apophis for another 100 years.

A paper published successful The Planetary Science Journal this past March supported that conclusion—mostly. In the paper, Paul Wiegert, an astrophysicist astatine Canada’s Western University, said that, portion Apophis’ existent trajectory poses nary threat, the asteroid volition person a near-encounter successful December 2026 with different asteroid, 4544 Xanthus. The 2 orbits volition bring the asteroids wrong little than 6,200 miles (10,000 kilometers) of each other, but they volition scope that closest constituent astir 4 hours apart, eliminating the hazard of a nonstop collision. However, immoderate worldly accompanying Xanthus could inactive onslaught Apophis, perchance altering its way and sending it towards Earth. Gulp.

Wiegert has present updated his calculations successful a caller survey published successful the aforesaid journal, determining that determination is simply a real—albeit incredibly small—chance that Apophis could collide with a tiny asteroid, knocking it disconnected its existent course. Although Wiegert acknowledged the likelihood are “exceedingly low,” helium pointed retired that determination person been observed collisions betwixt asteroids and different asteroids oregon comets.

Wiegert besides pointed retired that Apophis is not connected a nonstop collision people with immoderate of the 1.2 cardinal known asteroids. However, determination are countless tiny asteroids that are excessively tiny to track, many of which onslaught Earth each year.

According to his calculations, if an asteroid with capable wide and velocity were to deed Apophis astatine precisely the close time, it could spell occupation for humans. What are the odds? The chances of Apophis getting deed by thing are little than 1 successful a cardinal and the likelihood of that onslaught deflecting it towards Earth are “Less than 1 successful 1 billion,” Wiegert wrote.

According to the study, Apophis is presently successful the daytime entity and won’t beryllium observable until 2027. But erstwhile we tin spot it, we’ll cognize reasonably rapidly if we’re successful trouble. “Most of the interaction hazard could beryllium retired by a azygous reflection of Apophis successful 2027,” wrote Wiegert. If a collision occurs soon earlier the asteroid emerges from the Sun’s glare, it whitethorn not beryllium instantly evident that Apophis has been redirected towards our planet, but the quality of debris would beryllium a motion that thing large had happened, cueing astronomers to cipher a caller trajectory.

Fittingly, fixed the improbable series of events required for Apophis to deed Earth, the asteroid is named aft the Egyptian deity of chaos.

As Apophis approaches Earth, determination are plans successful spot for it to prime up respective companions, including NASA’s OSIRIS-APEX—the spacecraft formerly known arsenic OSIRIS-REx. The probe, which antecedently visited asteroid Bennu, volition analyse Apophis successful June 2029, aft the asteroid’s April 2029 flyby of Earth.

In addition, the European Space Agency is preparing a spacecraft, dubbed the Rapid Apophis Mission for Space Safety (Ramses), that volition beryllium sent retired to conscionable the asteroid connected its journey. Aboard Ramses volition beryllium 2 tiny CubeSats that volition observe however the asteroid’s carnal properties alteration owed to Earth’s gravity arsenic it flies by. The superior ngo is to stitchery information connected the asteroid that could connection clues astir however terrestrial planets originate and evolve. ESA has besides expressed anticipation it could besides assistance successful processing planetary defence systems against aboriginal cosmic objects connected collision courses with Earth. Ramses is presently scheduled for an April 2028 launch.

Even if this worst lawsuit script comes true, it mightiness not spell the extremity of humanity; the asteroid perchance serves a catastrophic, alternatively than an existential, risk. Apophis measures astir 1,100 feet (340 meters) long, which mightiness dependable big, but the asteroid that is believed to person killed disconnected the dinosaurs is estimated to person been betwixt six to 9 miles (10 to 15 kilometers) wide. So adjacent if you’re an Apophis pessimist, things could beryllium worse.