What a second Trump presidency means for tech

When Donald Trump is inaugurated arsenic president for the 2nd clip successful January 2025, helium volition presume powerfulness implicit the regularisation of a tech manufacture that’s changed importantly since his archetypal word began successful 2017. The tech industry’s honeymoon play with the US authorities has fizzled, and some Trump and his successor, President Joe Biden, took a skeptical stance toward tech CEOs, albeit for antithetic reasons. Their antitrust enforcers initiated immoderate of the archetypal large anti-tech monopoly actions successful decades. 

All this to say, the adjacent 4 years of tech argumentation volition beryllium unpredictable and erratic. But adjacent arsenic Trump tries to grow his authority, he’ll request enactment from the courts and Congress. These are the policies we’ll beryllium tracking arsenic Trump reassumes the presidency and what helium could realistically do.

AI

AI argumentation is an country wherever Elon Musk volition apt question to exert his influence, assuming helium and Trump stay connected bully terms. Musk runs xAI and has been captious of incumbent players similar OpenAI — a steadfast helium cofounded but later distanced himself from and sued. Musk has supported AI information measures similar California’s arguable and ultimately vetoed SB 1047, and helium antecedently signed a call for a moratorium connected large AI developments for information reasons. But his absorption connected existential risks has been criticized by immoderate AI researchers arsenic a distraction from much contiguous risks similar discrimination.

It’s besides not yet wide however Trump volition grip thorny copyright issues surrounding generative AI, including what accusation ample connection models are allowed to bid on. AI executives, including Musk, could question to signifier however Trump views the contented successful a mode that’s favorable to them.

Antitrust

Trump’s attack to antitrust enforcement could beryllium based chiefly connected idiosyncratic grievances. Bloomberg Intelligence elder litigation expert Jennifer Rie writes that “enforcement could beryllium idiosyncratic based connected president-elect Donald Trump’s presumption of the companies oregon industries involved.” Adam Kovacevich, CEO of the left-of-center tech manufacture radical Chamber of Progress, bluntly said we’ll spot a “‘Trump Welfare Standard’: is this institution bully to Trump?”

Though Trump’s VP pick, JD Vance, has publically praised Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan, it’s not wide however committed Vance is to this stance oregon however overmuch sway helium volition have. If helium does get a accidental here, we could expect a continued crackdown connected large tech firms to payment “little tech” oregon startups that VCs similar Andreessen Horowitz (another Trump supporter) privation to spot rocket with growth. 

While concern leaders whitethorn beryllium relieved if Khan leaves the FTC, Rie says we shouldn’t expect “a instrumentality to the relaxed antitrust clime of 10 years agone … immoderate aspects of the existent assertive attack volition stick. Republicans nary longer uniformly thin much business-friendly than Democrats.” Still, portion she says it mostly depends connected Trump’s appointments, merger approvals could go swifter and recently revised merger guidelines could beryllium unraveled.

Trump’s medication volition apt proceed the existing ineligible fights against Meta, Google, Apple, and Amazon (including 2 cases filed during Trump’s archetypal term). But it could prosecute much humble remedies, depending connected who helium appoints — and however Trump feels astir a institution similar Google connected immoderate fixed day. “A flimsy summation successful colony prospects is imaginable down the road, particularly if the cases don’t look to beryllium going good for the agencies,” Rie writes. “Trump doesn’t judge Google should beryllium breached up, though we didn’t expect this to hap anyway.” Kovacevich besides says Trump could usage the cases “as leverage implicit the companies to get favorable attraction connected code and contented concerns.”

TikTok

Under the Biden administration, Congress overwhelmingly passed a bill that could prohibition the societal video app unless ByteDance divests it by mid-January, and Biden signed it into law. The DC Circuit Court of Appeals is currently deliberating astir whether that instrumentality tin beryllium upheld and volition apt merchandise a determination by the extremity of the year. But TikTok’s chances of dodging a prohibition lone “slightly” amended nether a Trump presidency, according to Bloomberg Intelligence litigation expert Matt Schettenhelm.

If the DC Circuit decides to uphold the instrumentality and the Supreme Court declines to instrumentality it up oregon upholds that ruling, what Trump tin bash is somewhat limited. He could assistance an hold of up to 90 days for ByteDance to implicit its divestiture of TikTok, but nether the law, helium would request to certify to Congress that there’s an existent program underway. The instrumentality does permission the president immoderate discretion to find whether much apps too TikTok autumn nether the divestiture law’s purview and what represents an capable separation. But TikTok is written into the statute, truthful Trump can’t conscionable determine it nary longer applies. 

The instrumentality doesn’t springiness Trump “much room” to play with, Schettenhelm tells The Verge successful an email, though helium could workout immoderate judgement successful approving TikTok’s divestiture proposal. Even if Trump took the “unusual” measurement of announcing his Justice Department wouldn’t enforce the law, Schettenhelm writes successful a enactment to clients, “companies that transportation the app would beryllium undertaking tremendous hazard that Trump wouldn’t alteration his caput and question crippling penalties. We uncertainty they’d bash so.”

If the tribunal strikes down the instrumentality — possibly due to the fact that it finds it violates the First Amendment oregon due to the fact that Congress didn’t make a beardown capable record successful the comparatively speedy lead-up to its transition — past the legislature would request to bash the process over. While the measure had precise beardown bipartisan enactment the archetypal clip around, present that Trump has said helium opposes a TikTok ban, it seems little apt Congress would walk invaluable clip connected a measure that the president whitethorn not sign.

Tariffs and China

That could person large implications for the galore tech companies that usage components made successful China and for immoderate companies that trust connected China for a important portion of their concern strategy (like Apple and Tesla). But due to the fact that of that connection, this is different country wherever Elon Musk’s power could beryllium a chaotic card.

Alongside his promises of wide deportations, Trump’s China tariffs could dramatically alteration day-to-day beingness successful America, arsenic terrible terms hikes for imported goods would propulsion countless people’s lives and livelihoods into chaos. How acold the medication volition spell is an unfastened question, and 1 that makes predicting the aboriginal with immoderate certainty — wrong and extracurricular the tech manufacture — difficult to do.

Net neutrality and telecom policy

Net neutrality — which already faces an uphill battle successful the courts aft SCOTUS rolled backmost Chevron deference — is apt dormant nether a Trump administration. Bloomberg Intelligence expert Nathan Dean predicts a 90 percent accidental Trump’s Federal Communications Commission abandons the effort to reclassify broadband providers arsenic communal carriers and taxable them to greater regulatory scrutiny.

A Republican-led FCC volition besides apt let much concentrated power of TV stations, Dean writes, and loosen broadcast merger and acquisition rules. Republican FCC commissioner Brendan Carr, who served during the archetypal Trump administration, has called for large tech companies to wage into the Universal Service Fund — presently funded by telecommunications providers — and suggested punishing TV networks nether broadcasting rules. 

It’s not wholly wide yet however Trump’s FCC volition grip different cardinal broadband argumentation issues, including the rollout of the government’s Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) infrastructure concern program. But erstwhile again, Elon Musk’s power could go important here. Musk runs the outer net institution Starlink, which has been passed implicit for immoderate authorities contracts, but could lobby for much favorable policies nether Trump. For example, the BEAD programme presently favors fibre broadband, and Musk has critiqued the program arsenic an “outrageous discarded of payer money.” 

In his authorities ratio relation oregon successful a much informal way, Musk could question to bounds programs that assistance Starlink’s competitors, similar the Universal Service Fund, according to CNET. That programme helps work agrarian communities with broadband — places wherever Starlink is good positioned to determination in.

Content moderation

Conservatives including Trump person agelong complained astir societal media platforms suppressing blimpish code and accused them of bowing to Democratic authorities unit to region things similar predetermination oregon vaccine misinformation. Even earlier his reelection, platforms similar Meta had heeded Republican pushback and loosened their moderation standards.

A Trump medication and Republican legislature could rework the Section 230 liability shield to fto them really punish companies for moderation decisions. In summation to the enactment of passing existent laws changing Section 230, Brendan Carr suggested successful his Project 2025 chapter that the FCC could constrictive its protections for a wide scope of contented moderation decisions. Ultimately, immoderate enforcement oregon legislative changes to online code rules could look the Supreme Court, which has so acold upheld the close to behaviour contented moderation, though it signaled openness to imaginable ineligible changes successful the future.

Kids online safety

Trump hasn’t said overmuch astir wherever helium stands connected this taxable oregon connected the starring legislature measure connected the subject, the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA). That measure remains stalled successful the House aft passing done the Senate (in operation with an update to children’s information privateness law), and it’s not yet wide what could hap successful aboriginal legislature sessions. Current Republican House enactment has expressed concerns that KOSA could unduly bounds speech, truthful a Democratic House mightiness beryllium much unfastened to giving it level time, but ultimately, the concerns with the measure don’t autumn wholly down partisan lines. 

Adam Kovacevich, whose radical has opposed KOSA, suggests Democrats should beryllium wary of passing the measure nether a Trump presidency — pointing to pb cosponsor Sen. Marsha Blackburn’s (R-TN) comments astir protecting kids from transgender contented online. “Democrats volition person to determine whether they privation to manus Trump & MAGA authorities instrumentality enforcers a almighty caller censorship tool,” helium writes.

Electric vehicles

Electric conveyance taxation credits and different climate-focused policies volition apt beryllium successful jeopardy nether Trump, though that mightiness beryllium somewhat analyzable by his transportation with Musk, with Tesla lasting to summation from EV-friendly policies. Still, Wedbush expert Dan Ives antecedently said that Tesla’s “scale and scope … could springiness Musk and Tesla a wide competitory vantage successful a non-EV subsidy environment.”

Bloomberg Intelligence expert Nathan Dean sees conscionable a 30 percent accidental of continued EV taxation credits nether Trump. He predicts continued rhetoric that EVs are “a boon to China’s economy,” alongside efforts to regenerate the taxation credits with user incentives that could payment accepted carmakers similar General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis. 

Semiconductor policy

Under the Biden administration, Congress passed the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act, which injected funds into creating a home semiconductor accumulation manufacture — thing experts accidental is simply a nationalist information necessity and captious to maintaining power implicit the proviso concatenation for important technologies including aesculapian tech. But Trump called the measure “so bad” during his quality connected Joe Rogan’s podcast, and soon after, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said helium was unfastened to repealing the instrumentality (though helium aboriginal walked backmost those comments). Trump can’t undo a instrumentality connected his own, but helium could possibly instruct his Commerce Department to slow-walk aspects of its rollout.

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